Electric vehicle statistics and trends to watch in 2024: Electric Vehicle Forecast
Electric Vehicle Statistics and Trends to Watch in 2024
The electric vehicle (EV) revolution is accelerating. As battery costs fall and more models hit the market, consumer adoption is growing rapidly. Total global EV sales topped 6.6 million in 2021 and are projected to rise exponentially over the next decade. In the US alone, President Biden has set a goal of 50% of vehicles sold to be electric by 2030.
To understand the key forces shaping the trajectory of EVs in 2024 and beyond, we will analyze the latest data forecasts across important categories like:
- Global EV Market Outlook
- United States EV Market Growth
- Industry Investments Accelerating Adoption
- Government Policies Propelling The Transition
- Charging Infrastructure Scale Up
- Plummeting Battery Prices
- More Affordable Models Arriving
- Future Innovations And Trends
- Lingering Adoption Barriers
Let’s explore each area more closely, outlining the critical numbers and statistics that tell the story of escalating momentum. Companies and governments are placing their bets on an all-electric future arriving faster than projected.
Global Electric Vehicle Market Outlook
The worldwide electric vehicle market saw nearly 70% year-over-year growth in 2021, reaching 6.6 million vehicles sold. All signs point to accelerated demand in 2022 and beyond.
- Global EV sales are projected to rise to 12 million in 2024, nearly doubling from 2021 levels according to leading forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
- Consumer appetite for EVs is scaling rapidly. Registrations in key markets like Europe, China, and the United States grew by well over 100 percent in 2021 alone.
- Falling battery prices will continue to be the most impactful factor making EVs cost competitive with gas vehicles, driving more mass market adoption. According to BloombergNEF, average battery pack prices fell to $132/kWh in 2021. They are forecasted to hit $100/kWh by 2024 – the point many analysts cite as the tipping point for EV affordability compared to traditional engines.
United States EV Market Outlook
The US is poised to see explosive growth in EV sales over the next few years. Government policies, expanding charging networks, and rising consumer interest are converging to unlock adoption.
- Consumer reports show that over 50% of car buyers are likely to consider an electric vehicle for their next purchase. This growing consideration is starting to translate into market share – in 2021, EVs captured nearly 5% of all new car sales in the US.
- By 2024, leading projections estimate that EVs could surpass 16% market share for new vehicle sales in the US.
- The top selling EV maker in the US continues to be Tesla, which delivered over 350,000 vehicles in 2021. However mainstream brands are rapidly expanding their electric lineups to catch up.
- California remains the clear leader in EV adoption, accounting for over 40% of all electric vehicles on US roads. The Golden State is an early mover in policies and incentives supporting the transition away from gasoline cars.
To accelerate the EV transition nationally, the Biden Administration has outlined major policy targets, including:
- Deploying over 500,000 public EV charging stations across the country by 2030. This will help alleviate range anxiety issues for more drivers.
- Electrifying the federal vehicle fleet with zero-emission cars and trucks. The US government owns over 600,000 vehicles, presenting a massive shift in purchasing power.
- Restoring and expanding consumer tax credits to make EVs affordable.
- Credits of up to $7,500 per vehicle will reignite EV demand.
With supportive policies on both federal and state levels, the US EV market looks poised for hockey stick growth by 2024. More models catering to mainstream tastes combined with growing public infrastructure will unlock adoption in middle America. The opening is there for EVs to capture 25% or more of annual vehicle sales within the next decade.
EV sales growth data :
|Global EV Sales (Millions)
The table showcases the same exponential growth in global EV sales through the 2020s as depicted in the original line graph. Some key statistics highlighted:
- In 2021 there were 6.6 million EVs sold worldwide
- One projection estimates 13.1 million EVs sold globally by 2024
- Sales reaching over 50 million/year is possible under bullish forecasts by end of decade
Projected Top Selling EV Models Globally in 2024
|2024 Sales Projection
|Tesla Model 3/Y
|Tesla continues dominating market
|Wuling Hongguang Mini EV
|Top selling budget EV popular in China
|Volkswagen ID Series
|VW EV volumes scale with Trinity model
|BYD Han series
|400,000 – 500,000
|BYD models sell big in domestic China
|Hyundai Ioniq 5
|Rising popularity across European market
US Electric Vehicle Market Share Projections
|EV Share of US Sales
Industry Investments Accelerating Adoption
From auto incumbents to big tech firms, corporate investments in electrification are dramatically increasing. These commitments of capital and manufacturing capacity will directly enable rapid scaling of production as demand increases globally.
Some key examples of industry investments shaping the 2024 EV landscape include:
- Ford plans to invest over $50 billion in electric vehicles through 2026, while aiming to sell 2 million EVs per year by the end of that period. This huge commitment by an auto giant will directly drive more affordable and capable models like the hotly anticipated F-150 Lightning pickup hitting roads in 2022.
- General Motors has set even more ambitious targets of launching 30 EV models globally by 2025. GM is emblematic of legacy car makers who are going all-in on an electric future and have the vast manufacturing networks required to scale production.
- Stellantis, formed in 2021 from the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot, plans to invest over $35 billion through 2025 on vehicle electrification efforts. With 14 iconic auto brands under its umbrella ranging from Jeep to Dodge, Stellantis has the portfolio diversity to accelerate mainstream adoption.
- Volkswagen has committed over $100 billion dollars for investments in battery technology and widespread vehicle electrification across all its major brands. VW Group, one of the world’s largest automakers, sees the writing on the wall that EV dominance will emerge faster than most expect.
Beyond traditional automakers, Silicon Valley heavyweights are looking to disrupt the auto industry with new EV models built from scratch:
- Rivian successfully completed its IPO in late 2021, raising $13.7 billion to scale production. With R1T trucks already delivered and an SUV to follow in 2022, Rivian aims to prove that EV pickups and adventure vehicles are the future.
- Lucid started production of its ultra-luxury Air sedan in late 2021. Backed by Saudi investment funds, Lucid has raised over $7 billion to support bringing this Tesla-rivaling flagship EV to market at scale.
With oceans of capital flowing into the EV sector from both incumbent players and ambitious startups, consumers will reap the benefits. More affordable electric options tailored to mainstream tastes will hit showrooms through 2024 and beyond thanks to these industry investments measured in the billions.
The projections clearly show that serious auto industry commitment has been made to go all-in on vehicle electrification – setting the stage for rapid adoption curves as production capacity scales up to match consumer demand over the coming years.
Government Policies Driving Adoption
Beyond auto industry investments, crucial government policy supports are converging to accelerate EV adoption – from consumer incentives to charging infrastructure programs.
Key government EV policies and regulations on the horizon include:
Revived federal tax credits to make electric vehicles more affordable. The Inflation Reduction Act signed into law in 2022 restores EV tax credits up to $7,500 for qualifying American-made vehicles. Credits start being phased out after a manufacturer sells 200,000 electric cars – presenting a huge consumer incentive for automakers to scale production.
Stricter vehicle emissions standards pioneered by California and adopted by over 15 other states. Rules require that a set percentage of vehicles sold by automakers must be zero emission models. By 2026, [nearly 1/3 of new cars sold must be electric]
Billions invested into national EV charging networks. As part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, $5 billion federal funding will go toward increased deployment of public and highway EV charging stations nationwide. This will help ease range anxiety concerns inhibiting mass adoption. States like California have even more aggressive timelines and budgets for infrastructure expansion.
Globally, similar government action to set hard regulatory targets for phasing out gasoline powered vehicles combined with investments in charging networks provide tailwinds for rising EV sales through 2030 and beyond.
For example, in the EU:
- Regulations essentially [ban the sale of new gasoline and diesel cars by 2035], only allowing sales of zero emission models moving forward.
- As part of its European Green Deal, the EU has mandated member states to deploy over 1 million public EV charging points by 2025 to make ownership practical across the region.
With mounting regulatory pressure on automakers combined with incentives for consumers to go electric, government policy support is converging to guarantee scaled EV adoption by 2024 globally.
Charging Infrastructure Scale Up
A key prerequisite to mass EV adoption is convenient access to charging infrastructure. Without ubiquitous, fast charging stations, consumers will cling to the familiar ease of gas vehicles.
Thankfully, massive public and private investments are flowing into large scale deployment of EV charging networks globally, setting the stage for expanded mainstream adoption by 2024.
Some key statistics that showcase the coming wave of new EV charging station build out include:
- There were over 1 million public EV charging ports installed globally by the end of 2021 according to BloombergNEF.
- Installations are forecasted to rise to over 30 million public and workplace charging ports worldwide by 2030. This represents the type of hockey stick growth trajectory required to match vehicle electrification targets.
- In the United States, a [recent Consumer Reports survey] showed that over 60% of prospective EV buyers would be more likely to go electric if easier home, workplace or public charging access was available. This underscores the importance of infrastructure expansion to unlock adoption.
- In Europe, 95% of EV charging currently occurs at home locations. Expanding charging availability for urban residents without home access will be crucial to more widespread adoption. Mckinsey forecasts that public and streetside chargers will need to account for over 60% of all charging globally by 2030 in order for EVs to reach mass market levels.
Major charging networks like Electrify America, EVgo, ChargePoint and others have raised billions in funding to fuel large scale station deployments. Electrify America alone [plans to deploy 10,000 fast charging stations and 45,000 individual ports by 2026] across the United States and Canada.
With ambitious public and private investment commitments to scale charge port availability over 10x this decade, EV owners can expect convenient charging to become as ubiquitous as gas stations in the near future. This infrastructure build out will critically enable the coming wave of 100+ million EVs projected to hit public roads globally through 2030.
Falling Battery Prices Unlocking Growth
One of the most impactful forces shaping EV adoption trajectories is the consistent fall in lithium-ion battery prices over the last decade. As the most expensive component of an electric vehicle, batteries account for 25-50% of total vehicle cost. Their price point directly impacts the affordability and range capabilities of EVs.
The good news is that as global production scales in response to surging EV demand, battery pack costs continue dropping at rates faster than forecasted:
- According to BloombergNEF, average battery pack prices hit $132/kWh in 2021 – a drop of 6% from the prior year.
- Cost reductions were largely driven by manufacturing improvements and a more diverse raw material supply chain coming online.
- This represents an incredible 89% drop from prices over $1,100/kWh just one decade ago in 2010.
- BloombergNEF predicts pack prices will hit the industry tipping point level of $100/kWh by 2024.
This $100/kWh battery cost milestone is game changing as it reaches cost parity with equivalent gas-powered vehicles, unlocking true mass market potential. According to experts, $100/kWh is the point where electric vehicles can become cost competitive on sticker price alone without government subsidies needed to bridge the gap.
Additionally, range anxiety around EV driving distance fades as cheaper batteries can pack more capacity into vehicles. Case in point, the Tesla Model 3 increased its range from 250 miles to over 350 miles once a less expensive battery revision was introduced.
If battery prices continue their downward curve through this decade, EVs across categories from budget city cars to electric trucks will see total ownership costs beat their gas-powered counterparts – making consumer adoption a no brainer. It’s this economic gravity around falling lithium-ion prices that continues to pull EV sales projections farther into hockey stick growth territory through 2030.
Growing Model Selection Broadening Appeal
A crucial ingredient enabling mass EV adoption is having enough model variety on the market to suit diverse consumer needs. As recently as 2020, buyers faced a relatively narrow set of vehicles to choose from focused on compact cars and luxury Tesla sedans.
But the pipes are priming with major automakers gearing up to unleash a tidal wave of new electric models tailored to an array of tastes and categories. By 2024, car buyers will see their options dramatically multiplied.
Early indicators of the EV model wave coming include:
- Over 100 new EV models will launch just between 2022 and 2025 according to projections from Ducker Frontier. Every major auto brand is sprint to deliver more choices.
- Trucks and SUVs are seen as the golden goose for electrification as they command high margins and loyal buyers. 2023 alone will see hotly anticipated [releases like the electric Chevy Silverado, GMC Hummer EV and Ford F-150 lightning] aimed at bringing zero-emission capabilities without compromising capabilities that truck owners expect.
- More affordable EV options critical to mass adoption are coming with models like Chevy’s Equinox EV SUV expected to start under $30,000 when it launches in 2023. VW has hinted its ID.3 hatchback could aim for a similar $25,000 price point in the US by 2024-25.
- Tesla continues to push technology boundaries with its Cybertruck slated for late 2023 production. Meanwhile, [Rivian’s blockbuster IPO] will enable the fast-growing startup to scale electric adventure truck and SUV production for retail and commercial buyers.
This broader buffet table of EV offerings will entice drivers who are not one-size-fits all. Truck loyalists, SUV families, luxury splurgers and budget conscious buyers alike will all find compelling electric options tailored to specific tastes.
Jumping from a few dozen models today to hundreds within 2-3 years directly addresses a key barrier curtailing mass adoption so far – simply not enough selection to displace longstanding gas vehicle loyalties across all vehicle categories.
Future Trends And Innovations
While EV basics like batteries and motors continue seeing incremental improvements, some more cutting edge developments promise to reshape mobility by 2024 and beyond.
A few futuristic EV trends to watch that emerge from laboratories to real world drivers include:
- Advanced Solid State Batteries (SSB) –
Multiple companies from Toyota to startup QuantumScape are racing to be first to market with this next-gen battery technology. SSBs charge faster, are less prone to fires, and pack more range into a smaller, lighter package. SSBs could enable 300-500 mile ranges in compact SUVs by 2025 if commercialization ramps up.
- Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Charging
Rather than just sit parked and idle, your EV could actively supply stored power back to electricity grids using bidirectional charging technology. Imagine getting paid to help balance demand when renewable energy falls short. V2G pilot programs will expand allowing EV owners to become mini power plants.
- Over-the-Air Updates
Like how your smartphone updates with the latest software features, EV capabilities can now be enhanced remotely without visiting a dealer. Polestar, Lucid and others are investing heavily on in-car software and OTA updates spanning from battery management tweaks to adding horsepower or self-driving features. Your EV will keep getting better for years after you first drive it off the lot.
- Autonomous Driving
Tesla continues leading the integration of auto steer and self-driving features that inch closer to full autonomy with each hardware and algorithmic revision. By 2024, other brands will catch up in the race to crack hands-free driving. Meanwhile, fully driverless robotaxi pilots will also expand in controlled locations once regulatory approvals progress.
The innovations highlighted here likely represent just a glimpse of how dramatically the EV technology landscape will advance through the 2020s. With so much talent and capital flowing into the electric vehicle sector from both legacy automakers and hungry startups, consumers are poised to reap big benefits.
Challenges Inhibiting Wider Adoption
While electric vehicles are clearly hitting an inflection point in 2022, barriers persist that could slow more mainstream adoption cycles.
A few critical challenges remaining include:
- Home and workplace charging gaps
Over 60% of car buyers today do not have a dedicated place to charge at their residence. This access issue is exacerbated for renters in apartments/condos, low income areas, and dense cities designed before EVs. Solutions around more public L2 charging, fast DC stations, battery swapping models and workplace charging need time to mature.
- Customer education and experience
For many drivers, EVs remain an enigma. Limited exposure to experience their benefits firsthand, find answers from trusted experts or simply test drive models creates uncertainty. These experiential gaps exacerbate misconceptions around barriers that no longer reflect reality for most modern EV options. Auto dealerships in particular need better training and incentives to promote EVs equivalently to ICE vehicles during the sales process.
- Upfront affordability
While total cost of ownership for an electric vehicle often wins out long term, higher upfront sticker prices present psychological barriers around perceived value. State rebates and revived federal tax credits will help ease affordability gaps in the US market near term. But sustainability of EV incentives long term remains uncertain across different political administrations.
Overall, 2024 represents an inflection point where EVs start actively competing head-to-head with gas cars for mainstream buyer attention. But the transition will still take time – likely over a decade – to fully mature and overcome inertia consumers feel sticking with their fossil fuel habits absence external regulatory pressure.
The auto industry overall faces supply chain and production hurdles in the short term. But as factories retool and next-gen batteries scale up, EVs will benefit from cycles of continuous innovation and cost improvements that combustion engines no longer enjoy. The road leads clearly toward an all-electric future arriving faster than the average driver expects.
As this deep dive has shown through the latest data forecasts, 2024 represents a pivotal year where EV adoption trajectories start bending decisively upward across most major auto markets globally. Key factors converging to reach this inflection point include:
- Surging industry investments flooding into EVs now measured in the hundreds of billions by legacy and new automakers alike
- Stricter government policies like vehicle emission mandates and bans on new gasoline car sales post 2030-2035 in major regions
- Astronomical growth in EV charging networks answering driver anxiety over convenient access to fast charging
- Battery prices dropping to the crucial $100/kWh milestone heralding cost competitive sticker prices without subsidies
- Far greater model selections catering to diverse consumer needs across all vehicle types and price points
With economic gravity now strongly favoring adoption of electric vehicles for an increasing swath of buyers, public roads will progressively electrify over the coming decade. Entire nations have set start dates for the end of gas vehicle sales – signaling that 2035 may culminate in the world’s last great year for fossil fuel cars.
Until then, EVs enter the 2020s poised for multi-million annual unit sales as the new normal. Their growth trajectory looks locked into an upward hockey stick curve through 2030. What dazzling innovations and even cleaner technologies power vehicles for the next century remains to be seen. But the road to our all-electric transportation future is now clearly mapped.